Analytical model for collision probability assessments with large satellite constellations

At a time when space debris are already growing issue in the sector, deployment of large constellations, made hundreds to thousands satellites, is concern from an environmental point view. In next decade, sector will undergo considerable change as population active satellites about quintuple. This scenario pose new challenges regarding traffic management, generating demand for more powerful and efficient tools. this study, analytical model collision probability assessments between de-orbiting or injecting objects satellite constellations presented. Considering first be subjected continuous tangential acceleration, its spiraling motion would result series close approaches proximity constellation. The mathematical description crossing dynamics relies on assumptions circular orbits independent probabilities, but does not require propagate satellites’ orbit. statistical presented current work constitutes tool evaluation mean related type events. A comparison with propagation method has been performed validation purposes, showing that capable delivering accurate results, also case elliptical orbits. used assess risk connected constellation’s replacement, once they have reached their programmed End-of-Life. impact full replacement 12 approved analysed by means average probability. particular, it shown key features exploitation sustainability maximum thruster size true anomaly phases constellations’ satellites. consequences in-orbit investigated assessing generated formation cloud. results corroborate need international standards management exponentially increasing could trigger chain reaction collisions, making Low Earth Orbit inaccessible decades.